Strayhorn: Growth slows, still healthy

Comptroller Strayhorn Forecasts Slower, But Healthy, Growth in Texas Economy, Mirroring National Trend

Texas Comptroller Carole Keeton Strayhorn recently said the state’s economy will continue tracking the U.S. economy and will moderate over the next three years, growing at a somewhat slower pace than what the state has seen recently, but still at a healthy rate.

Economists with the Comptroller’s office recently completed the Fall 2006 economic forecast.

“After the robust growth in our Texas economy in 2004, 2005 and 2006, the next three years are expected to deliver healthy growth, but at a slower pace,” Strayhorn said.

Strayhorn noted that, “With the state’s increasing ties to U.S. performance, Texas economists pay close attention to national developments when forecasting the direction of our state’s economy. Nationally, sales of existing homes, prices and new construction starts are falling.

Although the Texas housing industry remains relatively healthy, it will be hampered by a smaller number of new home starts over the next three years, as well as a slowing economy in general.”

“Texas has recovered from the ’02-’03 economic slowdown that followed the triple economic whammy of 9/11, the Enron and WorldCom scandals and the high tech bubble bursting,” Strayhorn said. “The gross state product this year will grow 5.0 percent.

“And Texas’ real gross state product is now expected to grow at an average annual rate of 3.5 percent in calendar years 2007 through 2009, compared to 4.8 percent annually from 2003 to 2006.”

Strayhorn’s Fall economic forecast also projected the average annual growth rate in personal income in Texas to be 6.4 percent in calendar years 2007, 2008 and 2009.

This projection is less than the 7.0 percent average annual growth over the past three years.

“Texas’ gross state product will still slightly outpace the national gross domestic product in calendar years 2007 and 2008 and increase at the national rate in 2009,” Strayhorn said.